¿Zorba contra Goliat, o Zorba contra Zorba?

Escrito por Antolín Pincha aquí para preguntar

28 de enero 2015

Re: Titular del Wall Street Journal: «Leftist Economist Yanis Varoufakis Named Finance Minister»

This Greek tragedy just keeps getting more and more entertaining. With the 2 chief members of the Greek finance team being in one case a member of the Communist Party and in the other, an «avowed libertarian Marxist», it should be really amusing to watch the drama unfold on the negotiating stage from up in the amphitheater.

Quote from the newly elected party leader in Greece:
«The verdict of the Greek people ends, beyond any doubt, the vicious circle of austerity in our country.»
The «vicious circle of austerity». Just think about that for a couple minutes if you were wondering how crazy the world has become. How long do we think the Germans accept this sort of thing before they finally say enough?
«Market complacency on Greece is a mistake. Not because Greece itself is a huge systemic threat, but because the same political dynamics in Greece are coming soon to Italy. Greece is Bear Stearns. Italy is Lehman.»

Plausible Greek scenario by David Zervos, a Greek American and follows Greece closely:
» honestly think this has a 75% chance going down the messy path for Greece. Remember, when it comes to the loan decisions Germany can veto. This is not like the ECB where a majority rules. Tsipras will threaten non-payment. The Germans will say go ahead and try. The Greek banks will see sharp outflows. The Greek central bank will tap the ELA [Emergency liquidity assistance] asking it from 50b up to 60b/70b fast. The Germans will claim the Greek banks are insolvent and the ELA needs to be shut. The Greeks will say their banks just passed stress tests and this is a liquidity crisis not a solvency crisis. The ELA will be tapped again for another 10b/20b. Then the rubber will then hit the road….

The Germans would like nothing more than to show Italy and Spain what happens when you don’t follow the fiscal rules. …The sad truth is that if Merkel can get Greece out without taking the blame she will go for it. »

Maybe a Greek exit will be a catalyst for a big gold rally.

¿Tienes Oro?